#10. Ukraine and Moldova's European integration. Year 2022

Post-release #10, June 21, 2022

Elena Koneva

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In the spring of 1992, the European Commission adopted a Directive to begin negotiating cooperation agreements with Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Ukraine. More than 30 years later, the European Commission approved the candidate status for Ukraine and Moldova.

By the end of this week, the European Union's official response will be known. There is a high probability of it being positive. The population of the European Union now could grow by 10% and move towards the half a billion mark again.

How many people feel happy and excited about it? About 270 million Europeans - 66%, according to a recent Eurobarometer poll on Ukraine's integration into the EU (European Commission, Directorate-General for Communication, ‘Flash Eurobarometer FL506 : EU’s response to the war in Ukraine’, version v1.00, 2022, accessed 2022-06-21, http://data.europa.eu/88u/dataset/S2772_FL506_ENG).

In Ukraine and Moldova, according to ExtremeScan estimates, this will be a happy development for 40 million new would-be Europeans. A survey conducted in Moldova in May 2022 showed an absolute majority in favor of integration: 63% versus 32% among the entire population.

Table 1. Support for integration with the EU depending on the threat perception. (ExtremeScan Project "Moldova and Transnistria", May 2022)

Among Moldovan citizens who see Russia's actions as a threat, 84% are in favor of joining the EU. Among those who support Ukraine's side in the conflict, this figure reaches 90%.

Table 2. Support for integration with the EU depending on the side in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. (ExtremeScan Project "Moldova and Transnistria" May 2022)

In November 2013, 38% of Ukrainians supported integration with the EU. In 2014, the figure increased to 50-60% and has changed little in subsequent years (See the report "Geopolitical orientations of the residents of Ukraine: February 2019" by KIIS)

Quite expectedly, the support for integration with Europe has been growing steadily in Ukraine since the beginning of the war.

During the first days of the war there was an increase from 68% to 86%, then the growth continued, and by early April it reached 91%, an absolute record for all years of research (according to "The Seventh National Poll: Ukraine during the war (March 30-31, 2022)" by the sociological group "Rating").

An even more impressive figure is provided by the answer to the question:

“Would you be willing to accept a ban on EU membership if it guaranteed an immediate end to the war?”

No,' said 62% of Ukrainians after three months of destructive war, expressing a steadfast European choice (according to Info Sapience research).